2025 predictions

[Sledguy74]

11 PREDICTIONS FOR 2025 SNOWMOBILES

Posted by FAST TRAC on Jan 18, 2024

ARCTIC CAT

All of Arctic Cat’s new models have been released for 2025. The big surprise came in September when they unveiled the new 858cc 2-stroke motor and the new Garmin gauge with GPS. So, we’ll speculate for 2026.

NEW 4-STROKE TURBO THAT FITS IN CATALYST CHASSIS

2026 will be the first year without a Yamaha motor. The 4-stroke turbo has put both manufacturers on the map, and we don’t see Arctic Cat abandoning that market. 4-strokes also serve a huge purpose to compensate for the 2-stroke emissions under government regulation, so they serve a need to consumers and regulations.

One rumor about why Yamaha bailed on the sled market is that the Catalyst cannot house the 998 triple 4-stroke motor as it is. Before the Yamahacat days, Arctic Cat pioneered the factory 4-stroke snowmobile and had high horsepower in a Suzuki twin. It was a highly regarded motor and made high hp with upgraded tunes. We think Arctic Cat will return to a twin-cylinder 4-stroke turbo that can be bolted into the Catalyst. It’s not ideal for a company to have multiple chassis for 2-stroke and 4-stroke.

So, who is going to make the motor? Will Arctic Cat return to what they know in the Suzuki twin, or will they look to another company owned by their parent company? Weber is owned by Textron and produced the 750FST for Polaris in the late 2000s. Our bet is they keep it in-house to maximize the bottom line, and Weber produces a solid replacement for the Yamaha motor, which, combined with the Catalyst chassis, provides a significantly improved machine.

858 TURBO?

We think this is in the works, but maybe a year too soon. Arctic Cat is keen on dropping a significant improvement or motor a year, so our bets are a new 4-stroke before we see the 858 with a turbo.

BRP (SKI-DOO & LYNX)

2025 SKI-DOO RELEASE DATE: FEBRUARY 19TH OR 20TH

For 24, Ski-Doo brought most of the remaining Gen 4 models to the Gen 5 chassis, bringing all models except Sport and Utility to the new platform. We don’t see the sport chassis getting refreshed to a Gen 5 for quite some time. The last refresh went from XP to Gen 4 and skipped a generation, so there is no constant timeline.

850 TURBO R LINEUP EXPANDED

The most significant move we think Ski-Doo will make is expanding the 850 Turbo R lineup to the Backcountry and potentially a 129. The Backcountry with a turbo makes a lot of sense as it becomes a sled that can perform well in the Midwest and mountains of the West. We also think it will be possible to get Smart Shox with the 850 Turbo R for 25. They alluded in a tech video that they didn’t want to test the waters for one year before going all out.

BUILT-IN GPS

We do think for 25, the models will finally get a built-in GPS and no longer depend on a cell phone. It’s been the weakest spot for the gauge since it debuted, and we are surprised it hasn’t been addressed already. Arctic Cat’s Garmin gauge will have built-in GPS, so it doesn’t sound like patents prevent them from doing this.

NEW COLORS

Ski-Doo likes to run the same or similar color patterns for two years on trail models and then switch it up. 2025 is year three, so expect to see some new color schemes for the MXZ and Renegade.

LYNX 4-STROKES MOVE TO RADIAN2 CHASSIS

Last year, many Lynx models were upgraded to their equivalent of the Gen 5 chassis called the Radien 2. The 4-stroke X-Terrain model stayed in the previous chassis. They will likely move these models to a wide-body chassis with new gauge and LED headlights.

LYNX X-TERRAIN 850 WITH TRAIL-FRIENDLY TRACK OPTIONS

Last year, BRP brought the Lynx crossover to the North American market. It had the trail front end but, in a surprising decision, did not include an option for a trail-friendly track. It was only available with a 2” lug. The machine has the specs to compete directly with the Polaris Assault but missed that key detail. We think they will make the switch, and you will see a 1.6 Cobra option this year, which would be a formidable option to the Assault crowd that loves the trail front end.

POLARIS

2025 POLARIS RELEASE DATE: AROUND MARCH 4TH

Last year, we predicted some incremental changes to the Polaris line using existing motors and technologies, and what we got was essentially the same lineup as 2023. They might have held back last year for a couple of reasons: 1. To get back to reliable delivery dates and 2. Save a big splash for their 70th anniversary.

NEW CHASSIS?

Rumors are that a new chassis is being released. It would be a year or two early in the timeline they’ve followed over the last 15 years. The Pro-Ride was five years, and the Axys was 6. This would be four years for the Maytrx. We can see a few justifications to bump it up a year. Sales over the Maytrx timeline have been excellent, so the chassis investment was paid off sooner than in years past. Second, Polaris has the oldest 2-stroke chassis on the market, with increased competition from Ski-Doo’s Gen 5 and Arctic Cat with the Catalyst. Third, it’d likely be a less costly update and maintain most of the tooling from the Maytrx chassis, similar to Ski-Doo’s latest update with the Gen 4 to the Gen 5 using a ton of the same parts like tunnel and items under the plastic. Fourth, this puts them on a better timeline for the 75th anniversary to get five years before an update.

9R IN TRAIL SLEDS/9R OR BOOST IN XCR

We are 50/50 on this one. Polaris could be holding on to this one to stoke some fire into the lineup for this season. Dropping an existing motor into an existing model is a no-brainer to consumers, but will it make financial sense for Polaris? At the end of the day, if Polaris feels adding the 9r to trail sleds and more options to the XCR will sell more sleds and increase profit, they’ll do it. We don’t know the reliability of the 9r at sea level or the warranty cost on the back end. We also don’t know if it would hurt Boost sales. If it would, we don’t see it ever happening. Either way, Polaris has the number crunchers working hard every year to determine what motor options make sense.

SEMI-ACTIVE OR ACTIVE SUSPENSION

It’s been two model years since Ski-Doo released Smart Shox, and Polaris did not answer in the first two years. We know this is a matter of when, not if. They have a semi-active suspension on their UTVs, so they are familiar with the technology. The fastest path would be to use Fox, the same company doing their Dynamix shocks, but who knows, maybe Arctic Cat has exclusive rights to the technology on snow as they’ve had ATAC for quite some time. Polaris purchased Walker Evans last year and may want to develop something in-house. We think 2025 is the year Polaris releases active suspension on their sleds.

YAMAHA

2025 YAMAHA RELEASE DATE: LIKELY 3RD WEEK IN MARCH

With the announcement of 2025 being the last year for Yamaha, no improvements or changes are expected for this model year. It’s a sad ending after many decades in the business.

COMMEMORATIVE GRAPHICS

We expect graphics celebrating the legacy, and honoring the last year of production but that’s about it—last chance to get a Sidewinder that has dominated the high horsepower segment since its inception.

Comments are open below; let us know what you think will be coming for 2025!

[Strong Farmer]

Nice I guess a high powered xcr would be nice too: Give me twin pipes and close to 200 hp and a 5 year warranty 👻. 

[Sledguy74]

9 minutes ago, Strong Farmer said:

Nice I guess a high powered xcr would be nice too: Give me twin pipes and close to 200 hp and a 5 year warranty 👻. 

Rumour of a new Polaris chassis sorta surprised me a bit, seems early 

[gobills]

My prediction a tank in New sales across the board.

 

Major price increase will drive more people away.  

[RAMSOMAIR]

Another reason why Yamaha exited. Not worth the BS anymore for them.

[Sledguy74]

39 minutes ago, gobills said:

My prediction a tank in New sales across the board.

 

Major price increase will drive more people away.  

This seasons weather will definitely not help sales for 2025

 

[Baylaker]

Polaris might put a turbo on the S4. That could be pushed back though given that there’s so many leftovers and new sleds that still haven’t sold yet. 
 

manufacturers need to either reduce prices ALOT, or offer major incentives to get people to spend their money in this current economy…especially after this winter

[scottyr]

1 hour ago, Sledguy74 said:

BRP (SKI-DOO & LYNX)

2025 SKI-DOO RELEASE DATE: FEBRUARY 19TH OR 20TH

For 24, Ski-Doo brought most of the remaining Gen 4 models to the Gen 5 chassis, bringing all models except Sport and Utility to the new platform. We don’t see the sport chassis getting refreshed to a Gen 5 for quite some time. The last refresh went from XP to Gen 4 and skipped a generation, so there is no constant timeline.

850 TURBO R LINEUP EXPANDED

The most significant move we think Ski-Doo will make is expanding the 850 Turbo R lineup to the Backcountry and potentially a 129. The Backcountry with a turbo makes a lot of sense as it becomes a sled that can perform well in the Midwest and mountains of the West. We also think it will be possible to get Smart Shox with the 850 Turbo R for 25. They alluded in a tech video that they didn’t want to test the waters for one year before going all out.

BUILT-IN GPS

We do think for 25, the models will finally get a built-in GPS and no longer depend on a cell phone. It’s been the weakest spot for the gauge since it debuted, and we are surprised it hasn’t been addressed already. Arctic Cat’s Garmin gauge will have built-in GPS, so it doesn’t sound like patents prevent them from doing this.

NEW COLORS

Ski-Doo likes to run the same or similar color patterns for two years on trail models and then switch it up. 2025 is year three, so expect to see some new color schemes for the MXZ and Renegade.

LYNX 4-STROKES MOVE TO RADIAN2 CHASSIS

Last year, many Lynx models were upgraded to their equivalent of the Gen 5 chassis called the Radien 2. The 4-stroke X-Terrain model stayed in the previous chassis. They will likely move these models to a wide-body chassis with new gauge and LED headlights.

LYNX X-TERRAIN 850 WITH TRAIL-FRIENDLY TRACK OPTIONS

Last year, BRP brought the Lynx crossover to the North American market. It had the trail front end but, in a surprising decision, did not include an option for a trail-friendly track. It was only available with a 2” lug. The machine has the specs to compete directly with the Polaris Assault but missed that key detail. We think they will make the switch, and you will see a 1.6 Cobra option this year, which would be a formidable option to the Assault crowd that loves the trail front end.

 

 

I think the BRP predictions are pretty much spot on.    Seeing as their MY25 Dealer Launch is virtual I predict nothing major.    Just progression.     

 

It will be interesting to see how BRP handles the GPS situation in Ontario now that the OFSC will not share their mapping.   

 

When I was at the sled show, I was talking to a nice gal from Garmin and she told me that the new Cat/Garmin gauge will not work in Ontario unless something changes within the OFSC.   

 

I was chatting with my dealer last night and he said they are predicting to do about 1/3 of the Spring Breaks that they did this year and BRP is signalling that they are expecting dealers to step up with the same order that they did for MY24.   

 

 

[Strong Farmer]

4 hours ago, Sledguy74 said:

Rumour of a new Polaris chassis sorta surprised me a bit, seems early 

I don't think Polaris will do it for 2025 but maybe in limited numbers, ie snow check only. After all there will be some Yamaha customers on fence for 2025 that will swing towards Polaris or doo or even cat.
 It sounds like they did well with Maytrix and tooling could be close to worn out anyways. So they might have rebuild dies anyways may as well upgrade it at same time.  I have been eying some lightly used 2023.  If I can save 8k on one with less then 500 km's that might be way to go for now. 

[Sledguy74]

3 hours ago, scottyr said:

 

I think the BRP predictions are pretty much spot on.    Seeing as their MY25 Dealer Launch is virtual I predict nothing major.    Just progression.     

 

It will be interesting to see how BRP handles the GPS situation in Ontario now that the OFSC will not share their mapping.   

 

When I was at the sled show, I was talking to a nice gal from Garmin and she told me that the new Cat/Garmin gauge will not work in Ontario unless something changes within the OFSC.   

 

I was chatting with my dealer last night and he said they are predicting to do about 1/3 of the Spring Breaks that they did this year and BRP is signalling that they are expecting dealers to step up with the same order that they did for MY24.   

 

 

Putting the pressure on the dealers to maintain manufacturing volume isn’t that fair to me 

some will be stuck with units they can’t sell 

leading to lower trade in values for those who trade frequently 

 

[Strong Farmer]

9 minutes ago, Sledguy74 said:

Putting the pressure on the dealers to maintain manufacturing volume isn’t that fair to me 

some will be stuck with units they can’t sell 

leading to lower trade in values for those who trade frequently 

 

Yeah some dealers will just say screw it and close up and just do service. That's happened to allot of dealers around here.

Sure glad I am not a snowmobile dealer after this whacko winter. I even see guys on market place trying to down load unused 2 stroke oil from this season. 😆

[Sledguy74]

12 minutes ago, Strong Farmer said:

Yeah some dealers will just say screw it and close up and just do service. That's happened to allot of dealers around here.

Sure glad I am not a snowmobile dealer after this whacko winter. I even see guys on market place trying to down load unused 2 stroke oil from this season. 😆

Skidoo use to have a dealer in what seemed every small town but years ago changed and made them buy more product and from that decision lost a large number of dealers 

they are not struggling by any means today  but I really questioned pushing out a hefty portion of your network 

cat and Poo have lost a lot

of dealers the same way, just the way it is today 

 

[stoney]

As a manufacturer you build x number of sleds per year that need to go to dealerships to keep the assembly line moving, etc….so I understand the theory behind it, especially with good and bad years that no one can really forecast. 
There will always be buyers and as long as the manufacturer provide the incentive rebates to dealers when products don’t sell in a timely manner, I think it’s not a bad system. 

Having dealers as well that sell all lines of products means they should be able to absorb a bad year with sleds but good year with other product lines - it’ll help balance the books when you consider all 12 months and not just 3 or 4 months of sledding.

[Sledguy74]

14 minutes ago, stoney said:

As a manufacturer you build x number of sleds per year that need to go to dealerships to keep the assembly line moving, etc….so I understand the theory behind it, especially with good and bad years that no one can really forecast. 
There will also be buyers and as long as the manufacturer provide the incentive rebates to dealers when products don’t sell in a timely manner, I think it’s not a bad system. 

Having dealers as well that sell all lines of products means they should be able to absorb a bad year with sleds but good year with other product lines - it’ll help balance the books when you consider all 12 months and not just 3 or 4 months of sledding.

Other products are a necessity atv and utvs are the bigger business 

[signfan]

The predictions look decent.  My guess is the expedition and skandic go to the g5 chassis this year on doos end.  Would be nice to see them move smart shocks into other models (grand touring, enduro, etc.).  Not saying they will, but would be nice to see.  I also question if we will see electric versions to respond to Taiga from any or all 3 manufacturers.  Is a 4 stroke coming for the Catalyst, or are they just gonna run 2 strokes and start into the electric versions in that chassis?

[Strong Farmer]

15 hours ago, Sledguy74 said:

Other products are a necessity atv and utvs are the bigger business 

Atv's aren't huge sellers either. They last forever, way longer then sleds. My 2011 grizzly has close to 1500 hours on it now. Those engines seem to be good for 4000 plus hours, if not swamped out.  Like sleds they don't want to give you anything with some hours on it. I do too many hours so after two or three years I am stuck with it. I bought this grizzly from wild bill in 2016, with 50 hours 😎. I haven't even changed belt drive yet and I tow my chicken cart almost every day. 

[Nunz]

Gotta think that Polaris will have some sort of special edition to celebrate their 70th Anniversary as a Limited Snowcheck Release. What that is I have no clue but will be watching closely for sure

[Puggz]

isnt' this a little early? I guess after this year, why NOT.

 

 

[Strong Farmer]

1 hour ago, Nunz said:

Gotta think that Polaris will have some sort of special edition to celebrate their 70th Anniversary as a Limited Snowcheck Release. What that is I have no clue but will be watching closely for sure

High powered xcr is rumour.

I was hoping they bring storm name back to compete with last year of srx. either or will work. Probabily save storm for a limited role out of new chassis like skidoo did with Mach z. 

[Baylaker]

19 hours ago, Strong Farmer said:

High powered xcr is rumour.

I was hoping they bring storm name back to compete with last year of srx. either or will work. Probabily save storm for a limited role out of new chassis like skidoo did with Mach z. 

9R would be my guess if it’s a high HP trail sled.

[yamadan700]

20 hours ago, Strong Farmer said:

High powered xcr is rumour.

I was hoping they bring storm name back to compete with last year of srx. either or will work. Probabily save storm for a limited role out of new chassis like skidoo did with Mach z. 

I don't know if Polaris wants to bring the "Storm" name back.

Didn't those motors blow up with low mileage on them? That's what I associate the "Storm" name with. The 90's were a bit of blur for me so I may be incorrect. 

I do love the name tho!! 

[LuvMyViper]

12 minutes ago, yamadan700 said:

The 90's were a bit of blur for me so I may be incorrect. 

 

And the 80s were even blurrier !!!! I miss those days..

[yamadan700]

16 minutes ago, LuvMyViper said:

 

And the 80s were even blurrier !!!! I miss those days..

Agreed!! 

[scottyr]

Sorry.     The STORM is not a high point in Polaris history.    Probably the only thing worse would be to call it a Fusion.    LOL 

 

Xtra Light Turbo would make more sense.     

 

 

[Nunz]

13 minutes ago, scottyr said:

Sorry.     The STORM is not a high point in Polaris history.    

 

Xtra Light Turbo would make more sense.     

 

 

Agreed 💯