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Snow in December ( long range forecast )


Canuck
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I realize many on this forum : a) have fantastic weather models and intuition; b) don't believe in long range forecasts.

 

Bear with me. I was looking ahead 2 weeks and was surprised at the relatively warm GTA and cottage country weather.  Warm autumns have led to consistent,  cold December's - says the city boy :)

 

Noticed the Weather Network "exclusive" https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/will-winter-invade-the-heart-of-ontarios-fall-season-this-year

 

If I had to pick an over/under, I'd agree with this guy. Once the switch flips in November, we're in for winter weather. No freeze-thaw-freeze. Thoughts?

 

While the colder pattern may get started during November, we expect that once the pattern change does occur, it will stick around through the holidays.

Screenshot_20210926-221658_Chrome~2.jpg

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hoping a warmer late fall, will mean warmer lakes, and big lake effect snows. hoping the current border situation doesnt change for the worse, so we can ride a bit this year. ordered a spare belt, and was eyeing up skis, for an update to the sled. Ski

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18 minutes ago, Canuck said:

No freeze-thaw-freeze.

I hope you are right! We have too many water holes for the freeze-thaw-freeze crap. 
 

Does a late puffball mushroom season mean anything? I’ll have to go look again but so far we have zero as of midweek. We normally have so many that it looks like we are growing volleyballs in the forest. I hope it means a good winter!

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9 hours ago, Christy said:

I hope you are right! We have too many water holes for the freeze-thaw-freeze crap. 
 

Does a late puffball mushroom season mean anything? I’ll have to go look again but so far we have zero as of midweek. We normally have so many that it looks like we are growing volleyballs in the forest. I hope it means a good winter!

Going to be a flip flop winter. I ain’t talking about truckers foot wear from the south. Good news is maybe we will get a concrete base on trails if thaw only lasts a day at a time before it flops back to cold. 

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10 hours ago, Christy said:

I hope you are right! We have too many water holes for the freeze-thaw-freeze crap. 
 

Does a late puffball mushroom season mean anything? I’ll have to go look again but so far we have zero as of midweek. We normally have so many that it looks like we are growing volleyballs in the forest. I hope it means a good winter!

they are mushrooms/fungus, grow better when wet and warm. it means... it has been wet and warm, for them to grow a good crop, this year. see above. ;) Ski

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Quite a bit of snow is expected in the next two months before the season officially starts.

 

Winter In Canada Is Coming Quick & Some Provinces Are Going To Have It Snowier Than Others

 

Brace yourselves: it seems that winter in Canada is right on the horizon and some provinces will be in for way more snow than others. The Old Farmer's Almanac long-range weather forecasts show what's in store for the next two months based on past data from Environment Canada and the predictions for October and November are out now with snow and cold expected.

 

In southern Ontario, it's forecast that snow will move into the region by the end of October in the form of flurries and snow showers. Then in November, snow and cold temperatures are expected almost every week!

For southern Quebec, there will be a couple of wintry bursts in October before more consistent periods of snow and cold barge into the province in November.

 

Click link to read more....

https://www.narcity.com/winter-in-canada-is-coming-quick-some-provinces-are-going-to-have-it-snowier-than-others

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be going on 25 yrs since I've seen snow arrive at end of Oct. and stay on the ground  where I hang my hat

 

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3 hours ago, burndog said:

be going on 25 yrs since I've seen snow arrive at end of Oct. and stay on the ground  where I hang my hat

 

I recall riding our sleds to the monthly club meeting (first Wednesday of the month) in Dec 2008. Lots of early snow and groomed to near perfection. Of course it promptly melted a few days later and we did not reopen until first week of January. But is was nice while it lasted. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Here's some more good weather news...

Winter is coming, Ontario — and La Niña is going to make it one to remember

Don’t let the incredibly mild October fool you. Winter is coming and it’s coming faster than many of us would like to see.

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We are in the second year of a back-to-back La Niña also known as a “double dip.” These colder-than-normal water temperatures in the equator region of the Pacific Ocean are an influencing factor on weather patterns around the planet.

Here in Canada, an altered mid-latitude jet stream favours more cold and snow out west, with above-normal precipitation around Southern Ontario but often with bouts of warmer weather.

 

It’s important to keep in mind that no two La Niñas are alike and other factors often play into the winter weather pattern. This year we are watching an early season SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event which can be a precursor to a displaced polar vortex.

 

If this were to occur, it would likely be in late November and December, adding to the already chilly pattern we are forecasting around the Great Lakes. Those giant bodies of water are unusually warm for this time of year, thanks to the mild fall and an early Arctic outbreak would mean significant lake effect snow. It’s something we are looking out for.

 

Click below link to read more..

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8324459/ontario-winter-forecast-2021-2022/?utm_medium=Facebook&utm_source=AM980London

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