I am just going with the opposite of what the predicted forecast is......about par for the course. Agreed, it is what it is......I do not invest much in the weather forecast, mostly just a discussion point at times.

Warmer does = more snow in some areas as we all know once the lake freezes - snow slows.   Is what it is.

The model for weather changes by the hour. These dufus's don't know anything

137 hands down, you won't be disappointed. You won't even notice the difference in track length. I went from 120 Pro R to 137 850 XC in 2021 & haven't looked back. The biggest question for you now is lug height.  I've got 1.35 on both my XC 137 & my XCR 136, both sleds are quite capable off trail as well as long as you know the throttle is your friend!!

Might be in everyone's best interest to just pass on this winter, avoid the insurance cost, defer the repairs one more year, trail set up burden (labour & $$).....and pocket the cash for a stronger one next year.....   I do like how Dave in the other video/thread repeatedly stated anything could happen and do not bet the bank, BUT the models show ...... Tells me there is hope, always is, the weather has a mind of its own, regardless of our footprint......there is always somewhere to ride, within reason, I cannot recall a year where I did not have options.