Brisk July Portends Frigid, Snowy Winter, Experts

[LuvMyViper]

Here's an interesting article about the upcoming winter.. I sure hope it's right!!!!!!!!

Brisk July Portends Frigid, Snowy Winter, Experts

July 27, 2009

By Tim Puko

Tribune-Review, Pittsburgh

Meteorologists at AccuWeather have a name for 2009: "Year Without True Summer." The worst part? It could lead to the truest of winters.

July's below-average temperatures could mean heavy snowfalls and bitter cold this winter along the Eastern Seaboard, according to the State College-based service and its chief meteorologist, Joe Bastardi. Whether Pittsburgh will feel the chill is tough to say: It's on the edge of the predicted snow belt and might or might not be hit, depending on where the storms blow, AccuWeather meteorologist Kate Walters said.

Photo: Debbie Shelestak, 37, of Blawnox (not shown) and her children (from left) Bridget, 9, Emily, 6, Ethan, 3, and Ben, 5, stroll past a wintry mural along Freeport Road in Blawnox. Accuweather meteorologists say a cool summer could indicate we're in store for a wet, snowy winter. (Justin Merriman/Tribune-Review)

But these types of long-term forecasts are difficult to make accurately, other meteorologists said. The National Weather Service has a less detailed long-range outlook that in part contradicts AccuWeather's. And Weather Channel meteorologists declined to comment, telling their spokesman that such predictions are just too hard to make.

"They vary greatly, depending on their detail. The more detail, the less likely they are to be accurate," said Lee Hendricks, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Pittsburgh office. "It gets real (uncertain) beyond (90 days). All you're doing is trying to play the game of percentages."

No correlation exists between summer and winter weather, Hendricks said. Summer weather patterns flow north from the tropics; winter weather patterns flow south with polar air from Canada, he said.

The National Weather Service predicts winter temperatures are more likely to be at or slightly higher than the normal 30 degrees around Pittsburgh. It has yet to predict how much precipitation the region will get.

Even authors of The Old Farmer's Almanac, famous for its long-range outlook, won't have any predictions ready until the book comes out in September, said a spokeswoman for its publisher.

The AccuWeather predictions are meant to describe general trends, said Walters, who did not have information on the accuracy of its long-range predictions of the past. "It's more of a guideline, not per se actual," she added.

A colder, snowier winter would mean increased energy bills, travel delays, school closings and pressure on snow removal crews. That could put real stress on Western Pennsylvanian communities that have spent a lot of money on road salt in recent years, Walters said.

The winter could be one of the snowiest since 2003, when 80 inches fell on some places in the East, according to Bastardi's report. Even if the amount is around the norm, it might seem like a lot of snow fell because of the mild winters in recent years, Walters added.

"You know what? This past winter was frigid and unbearable because there was no snow," said Erin Warner, 25, of Squirrel Hill. "I won't mind the cold this winter so long as we get snow this time around."

In the meantime, temperatures will likely remain cooler than average throughout the rest of the summer, Walters said. The threat of more severe storms and flash floods remains in the region's creekside communities.

[SlowTouringGuy]

Hey !! How did you get that Carp stuck to your forehead ?? ?? :P :P

[LuvMyViper]

Hey !! How did you get that Carp stuck to your forehead ?? ?? :P :P

Crazy Glue!!!!!!!

[Wildbill]

Anyone know what he predicted for the summer ? These guys use a dartboard for predictions I swear . That being said I hope he is right !!!!!!!!

[UsedtoSkidoo]

Hey !! How did you get that Carp stuck to your forehead ?? ?? :P :P

[ontariof7]

Hey !! How did you get that Carp stuck to your forehead ?? ?? :P :P

Crazy Glue!!!!!!!

and here I thought custom john bitch slapped you with his carp :poke:

[Canuck]

Anyone know what he predicted for the summer ? These guys use a dartboard for predictions I swear . That being said I hope he is right !!!!!!!!

I read we were going to have '5' days over 30 degrees celsius this summer.

[SlowTouringGuy]

Hey !! How did you get that Carp stuck to your forehead ?? ?? :P :P

Crazy Glue!!!!!!!

and here I thought custom john bitch slapped you with his carp :poke:

My Turn . . . .

[SkiDooStu]

Ok, I wanted to add my nerdy non-professional non-meteorogically trained analysis to this conversation:

The NOAA in the states and environment canada are both saying warmer than normal, due to the el Nino that is currently in a "weak" condition in the pacific. our last major el nino was 1998, where we had barely any snow whatsoever. this was the most intense el nino on record...

However, some weather people look at the cold July we have had, compare that to other historical cases where an El Nino has followed a cold july, and have found cold winters associated.

I consulted environment canada's climate database, and used the winter of 2003 (jan feb of 2003) as an indicator. This was a year that followed a cold summer of 2002, but was also an el nino year.

The results were a pretty cold december january and february with a couple of thaws. Looked like a pretty regular winter to me... i used huntsville as the subject station and the only pronounced thaw was at the beginning of february...

Anyway, I figure that's a little bit of goods news...

[Viper]

The Canadian Almanac is out, looks like we are gonna be cold and lots of snow

[Moosifer]

The Canadian Almanac is out, looks like we are gonna be cold and lots of snow

[Wildbill]

The Canadian Almanac is out, looks like we are gonna be cold and lots of snow