SkiDooStu Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 From Larry Cosgrove's Weatheramerica Newsletter: Arctic Motherlode To Visit The Great Lakes.... A look at the numerical models for the past two runs (12z and 18z) shows a 500MB longwave pattern that has been distinctly rare over the past 11 years: an Arctic motherlode depressed into the Great Lakes with a vigorous -EPO signature and signs (from the 12z Jan 10 ECMWF version) of a developing -NAO styled positive height anomaly. Even if the cAk gyre assumes the position shown in the 18z GFS operational depiction (over Ontario), the push of colder values would be impressive. In short, those who wrote off the 2007-2008 winter as "one of the warmest ever" will, for the moment at least, be very disappointed. ....With Widespread Extreme Cold East Of Continental Divide! The core of the bitter cold air will fall into the mean trough over North America, with the worst of the bitter air mass lying between the Continental Divide and Appalachian Mountains. Since the actual core of the cAk dome will pass through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, a relatively rare event, the worst part of the severe temperature drop will be felt on the U.S. side of the border. It is conceivable that if the operational European and American scenarios are correct, that the nocturnal surface 0 deg F isotherm could reach as far south as an Interstate 40 line (say Oklahoma City OK to Knoxville TN), and the freeze line could push well into Mexico at some point during the medium range. I doubt very much that the intrusion of Arctic air experienced during the medium range will be a "one and done" deal. If you look at forecasts of the position of the cAk vortex, the feature actually deepens and sags into N QC (the Ungava Peninsula) through the extended period. Motherlodes in this position teleconnect well with much below normal temperatures to the east of the Rocky Mountains, with a concentration of the coldest readings over the Midwest, Northeast, and of course eastern Canada. Most of the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF versions show a second, serious stab of brutally cold air sweeping from Alberta and Saskatchewan through the Great Plains into the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard. In keeping with the previous Arctic blast, the surface cold front penetrates deep into Central America. To make matters worse, the various equations seem to hold on to the Alaskan block and Ungava gyre through 384 hours, which suggests that even with a warm-up after the extended period, yet another sharp drop in temperatures could occur in at least the northern tier of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Quimby Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 What about the feltch twitch c7 and the crossborder zKd wave from the DRUm34 profile showing a congruent radical sweep from the pwave and the dorf cycle? Did they even consider this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiDooStu Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 C'mon Rockman I thought you'd like that one. You seem so bummed out about weather... A little somethin to keep you going through the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Quimby Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I have my eyes peeled on the weather radar right now. Praying to the snow gods!! So let's hope the doppler magnification ratio is sufficent enough to radically megnetize the CDf56 column of demineralized ozone from the XZC45l2 refractory sender profile. That should cause a massive Db34 level of negative zion to polarize the cap of the trough. SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skidooer Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 Can the computer model beat both the thunderstorm and the equinox theories? Both of which have held true for hundreds of years? I sure hope so, but I remain skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiDooStu Posted January 11, 2008 Author Share Posted January 11, 2008 What are those theories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skidooer Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 What are those theories? 1. The snow won't stay for six weeks after a thunderstorm. We still might get snow, but it won't last for any length of time. 2. The other is based on the wind direction at the equinox. Southernly winds means the winter will be warm. Northerly winds means it will be cold. Easterly winds means it will be rainy. I forget what westerlies mean, but I'm going to guess snowy. The wind was in the east this season. So, as you can see, the odds are really stacked against us, at least for those of us who ride in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 What are those theories? 1. The snow won't stay for six weeks after a thunderstorm. We still might get snow, but it won't last for any length of time. 2. The other is based on the wind direction at the equinox. Southernly winds means the winter will be warm. Northerly winds means it will be cold. Easterly winds means it will be rainy. I forget what westerlies mean, but I'm going to guess snowy. The wind was in the east this season. So, as you can see, the odds are really stacked against us, at least for those of us who ride in the south. Lets stay positive................................it's snowing here! woooooooohoooooooooo! :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbill Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 So really what we need to to do is get ready to ride when it is ready . And please for all our sakes ride safe ride smart have fun . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuvMyViper Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I;m going with Goldeneyes and Larry.. Bring it on!!! I hope your wrong this year Adam!!!!! Mind you, your track record with this thunderstorm stuff has proven to be right too many years in a row now... What's Joe Bastardi got to say (I use to be a member of his pay site)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanII Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 LOL...I luv the thunderstorm theory. It holds up because most thunderstorms in the winter usually occur mid to late season (late Feb. or March) so their is not really 6 weeks of winter even left. That would put us into May. You can do anything with stats. Winter is coming again “my lips Gods ears†Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skidooer Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 It holds up because most thunderstorms in the winter usually occur mid to late season (late Feb. or March) so their is not really 6 weeks of winter even left. I think you may be misunderstanding the theory. It's typically for fall thunderstorms. If, for example, we had one on the first day of December, the snow won't stick around until the middle of January. It's held true for as long as I've been observing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuvMyViper Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 It holds up because most thunderstorms in the winter usually occur mid to late season (late Feb. or March) so their is not really 6 weeks of winter even left. I think you may be misunderstanding the theory. It's typically for fall thunderstorms. If, for example, we had one on the first day of December, the snow won't stick around until the middle of January. It's held true for as long as I've been observing it. I hope your as wrong as this picture!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Quimby Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I just love the weather network and how often their forecast changes. The other day there was like ten days of snow for Haliburton lined up...now that has chaged yet again. Even good ol' Brett Hansen at Accuweather has not much more promising either! I am pissed because last year was my first year back sledding after years away from the sport. I recall from the late eightites and early nineties, the really decent rides in late December and travelling the lakes on New Years day to go ice fishing. I was jacked this December after last year...then this. I am keeping my fingers crossed as I have twelve days of vacation in mid February and I am really hoping to tally up some serious mileage then. This coming vacation will really be the deciding factor on a new sled next year. I also feel bad for the business owners who really depend on the Winter economy. Two lousy years in a row will be tough on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skidooer Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I just love the weather network and how often their forecast changes. They've been quite consistent around here the last few days. And TWN has correctly predicted the long-range temperature trends every single time this winter so I am cautiously optimistic. On the other hand, the thunderstorm never lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faceman Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 What about the Furry Caterpillar???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mossy Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 What about the Furry Caterpillar???? The wooly bear?! I didn't see any this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbill Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 I want a job at the weather . Where else can you be wrong more than half the time and keep your job . On the other hand old wives tales are for old wives . Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reved Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 ...Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Sounds like a great idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedtoSkidoo Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 ...Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Sounds like a great idea! Yes it does...............wait a minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skidooer Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 On the other hand old wives tales are for old wives. The thunderstorm theory is rooted in actual science. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maple Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 ...Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Sounds like a great idea! Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowTouringGuy Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 ...Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Sounds like a great idea! Works for me! Me too ! I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedtoSkidoo Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 ...Nobody knows so when it snows we need to ride. Until then we can pick on UTS Sounds like a great idea! Works for me! Me too ! I'm in are you a vet now? :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowTouringGuy Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 Hi Jackers ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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