Attrition is one of many factors, but a big one imo. There is very limited #'s of "new" to the activity people coming into it - and it would be less and less every year.   Until winters and economies stabilize, and overall cost of the sleds come down or back to planet earth, it will get worse before it gets better.   The # of people willing to drop 15-25 k on a sled to sit in the garage is few and far between.

There is no guessing about that. The big permit sale numbers come from high population areas that have trails relatively close by. That is why the OFSC decided after discussion years ago that they couldn't close trails in southern Ontario because that was where the big permit numbers came from.  

I never knew they even tracked where I was going with app, until this came up here this year. I have to start riding with app open on my phone I suppose. 

Between that and using the app anytime you ride locally is the only way we are going to keep trails down here open. Head office apparently was going to choose which trails to close strictly by looking at the heat map (app tracking), and selecting the least used trails. Problem with that is local riders never use the App. They know where they are going. I have literally never turned on the app when riding from home, only when touring up north.

When I bought my vest I went right to factory in Kinmount.   It might be gone as that was a few months ago and the building was for sale.  The building was pretty rough and required some work.   The manager was a long time employee and a great help  I tried on multiple vests and styles   I ended up buying the lightest vest without any added insulation   I don’t require extra heat from added insulation