A lot more are willing to drop that into a couple of atv's or SxS now.  I sold my new sled, bought a new 4 seater for all of us to ride in together and picked up a used sled.  Don't ever see myself buying a new sled anymore.

In past I bought one permit in northern Ontario so club could hit 50 permits to stay active in ofsc. Dubrevuille was one club I bought permits from years ago, when they were pleading for help to hit minium numbers. Now I buy them local to save southern trails were I like to ride . 

Attrition is one of many factors, but a big one imo. There is very limited #'s of "new" to the activity people coming into it - and it would be less and less every year.   Until winters and economies stabilize, and overall cost of the sleds come down or back to planet earth, it will get worse before it gets better.   The # of people willing to drop 15-25 k on a sled to sit in the garage is few and far between.

There is no guessing about that. The big permit sale numbers come from high population areas that have trails relatively close by. That is why the OFSC decided after discussion years ago that they couldn't close trails in southern Ontario because that was where the big permit numbers came from.  

I never knew they even tracked where I was going with app, until this came up here this year. I have to start riding with app open on my phone I suppose.