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ArcticCrusher

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    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    A good read.

     

     

     

     

     

    How deadly is COVID19?

    17th February 2021

    I have spent large chunks of my life trying to untangle medial data and research. COVID19 has long since defeated me. I have been unable to make any sense of the information we are bombarded with daily. So, I decided to go back to basics.

    At the start of the COVID19 saga, I was interested to know what the infection fatality rate (IFR) was likely to be. I felt I could then have a go at comparing it to other diseases, primarily influenza.

    The infection fatality is the number of people infected with the virus who then die. This is very different to the case fatality rate (CFR), which is the number of people infected with the disease who become unwell enough (sometimes, but not always) to be admitted to hospital – the ‘cases’. Who then die.

    Before COVID19 appeared, there used to be a reasonably clear distinction between the infection fatality rate (IFR), and the case fatality fate (CFR) and it is important that they should not get mixed up. Because the case fatality rate is almost always far higher than the infection fatality rate – as you would expect. People who are ill enough to go into hospital are far more likely to die than people who do not suffer any symptoms. Bear this in mind.

    Another thing to bear in mind is that, at the start of any epidemic it is simpler to establish the case fatality rate, because most people who are seriously ill end up in hospital and/or will have tests to see if they have the disease in question. Those with no symptoms may never cross the path of a medical professional and are very unlikely to be tested.

    What is the ratio between the two? It depends on the virus. With Ebola the infection fatality rate and case fatality rate are closely matched – more than fifty per cent of people who are infected, die. With the common ‘coronavirus’ cold, the spread is far wider, maybe a hundred to one, or a thousand to one – perhaps more.

    The fact that most infections are never noted, is one of the reasons why the infection fatality rate for previous flu epidemics can vary so wildly from paper to paper. However, with influenza the CFR/IFR ratio has generally been estimated to be about ten to one. By which I mean that, for each ten infections, one will be severe, and it is amongst the severe infections that you get the deaths.

    Armed with such knowledge, and assuming COVID19 had a similar case: infection ratio to influenza you could have a go at working out the infection fatality rate. Always bearing in mind that people with no symptoms, who are not tested, are very unlikely to appear in any figures.

    You are always guessing – to some degree or another.  

    However, you always know three things:

    1: The infection fatality rate must always be lower than the case fatality rate.

    2: The case fatality rate will appear to fall as less severely infected people are tested.

    3: The infection fatality rate will also appear to fall as more people with no symptoms are found to have had the infection.

    For example, in China, at the start of the COVID19 pandemic, the infection fatality rate was reported to be three to four per-cent. This rapidly fell. Then it went up a bit, then it fell, then it went up. Then, everyone started giving different figures. The highly influential Imperial College group, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, decided to use an infection fatality rate of 0.9% for their modelling.

    Somewhat later on, John Ioannidis, an influential figure in the world of medical research, estimated the infection fatality rate to be 0.27%. This was a couple of months after the Imperial College figure was published 1.

    Peter Gotzsche, who established the highly regarded Nordic Cochrane collaboration, put the figure even lower than this. He looked at a study in Denmark, where blood donors were tested for antibodies. Using these data, the researchers established an infection fatality rate of 0.16% 2. Other figures came in higher, some lower.

    The most tested population in the World – per head of population – is Iceland. Last time I looked, Iceland had 6,033 ‘cases,’ and twenty-nine deaths. This represents a case fatality rate of 0.5%, which suggests an infection fatality rate of 0.05% 3.

    However, these figures I am quoting from Iceland come from a time after everything changed. At some point, difficult to put an exact date on this, it was decreed that if you had a positive PCR COVID19 test, with or without symptoms, you were to be defined as a case. No matter if you had symptoms, or not. This had the result of making the infection fatality rate, and case fatality rate, the same thing. Suddenly, all cases are infections, and all infections are cases.

    Which means that any comparisons of the infection fatality rate with COVID19, and other diseases became virtually meaningless. The infection fatality rate suddenly shot up to match the case fatality rate, which point I gave up trying to work out the infection fatality rate. I doubly gave up when I tried to find out the accuracy of the PCR tests. Were these tests over-diagnosing, or under-diagnosing?

    So, I thought I would turn my attention to the population fatality rate instead. That is, how many people has COVID19 killed in a population, or country. This figure is the bald, unvarnished, death rate. It does not, necessarily, tell you how many people have been infected. It does not tell you the percentage of cases, that die. It simply tells you how many people have died… with COVID19 written somewhere on their death certificate. [Or even not written on their death certificate]

    At present, in the UK, the total number who have died is one hundred and seventeen thousand. This represents a population death rate of 0.17%. if you knew how many people had been infected, in total, you could work out the infection fatality rate from this. But we don’t know how many people were infected, and now we never will. Because so many people are now being vaccinated. They will show antibodies, and it will not be known if that is because of an infection, or due to vaccination.

    So, where to turn to next. If you look at the entire world, the current figure of COVID19 deaths, on the fourteenth of February, stood at 2,406,689 3. Which is a little over one in three thousand, or 0.033%. How many people in the world have been infected? Nobody knows that answer to this question. There are some countries that have done very little testing, others far more.

    On the basis that there are so many questions, with very few clear-cut answers, I thought I would try to compare the two point four million figure with previous influenza epidemics.

    A study was done in 2016, looking at the influenza epidemic of 1957 – one of the worst in recent history. They extrapolated the mortality figures from 1957 to 2005, because the World’s population doubled during that time period (I am not entirely sure why they chose 2005). Their conclusion was that a flu epidemic of similar magnitude to that of 1957 could kill two point seven million people.

    ‘In conclusion, our study fills a gap in the availability of global mortality estimates for historical influenza pandemics, which can help guide pandemic planning. Our model extrapolates 2.7 million influenza-related deaths (95% CI, 1.6 million–3.4 million deaths) should a virus of similar severity to the 1957 pandemic influenza A(H2N2) virus return in the 2005 population, which is intermediate between global estimates for the 2009 pandemic (0.3 million–0.4 million deaths and a devastating 1918-like pandemic (62 million deaths; range, 51 million–81 million deaths)’ 4.

    Extrapolating onwards to 2020, where the population is significantly greater than in 2005, then the figure from the 1957 epidemic would now be just over three million deaths. Which means that, up to this point COVID19 has been thirty per-cent less deadly than the influenza epidemic of 1957 – per head of population.

    If the Imperial College infection fatality rate of 0.9% is accurate, once around eighty per cent of the world’s population has been infected [at which point population wide immunity would be reached] we should see fifty-four million deaths. We are currently nowhere near that figure, and at the current rate of deaths, per year, it will take twenty-two and a half years to reach the fifty-four million figure.

    Of course, people will argue that this outbreak is far from over, and millions more will certainly die. Yes, more people will die, but the current number of new cases and deaths is falling pretty rapidly worldwide, rather than rising. We may reach three million, we may not. It is exceedingly hard to believe we would ever have reached fifty-four million even without any vaccines.

    So, how deadly is COVID19? It seems, so far, to be equivalent to a bad flu pandemic. Worse than most in recent times. However, it seems to have had an extremely variable impact.

    In Singapore, there have been nearly sixty thousand ‘cases’ and twenty-nine deaths. A case fatality rate of around one in two thousand, or 0.02%. The UK has had four million cases and one hundred and seven thousand deaths. A case fatality rate of 3%. Therefore, if you get COVID19 you are one hundred and fifty times more likely to die of it in the UK, than in Singapore 3.

    Yes, I went back to basics and the figures still didn’t make any sense.

     

     

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/02/17/how-deadly-is-covid19/?unapproved=209929&moderation-hash=a5cef811cb2cdcbea50d9b3f11d6c604#comment-209929

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, snapper said:

    Why are these trails still being maintained? They are not going to open this season. The OFSC would like to thank all sledders who purchased permits to ride districts 10&11 and got shafted. As for businesses that have suffered insurmountable losses due to trail closures look no further than the poster boy for stupidity. Cheerios 

    The businesses (non essential) are closed and it looks like TO and Peel want it extended another 2 weeks.

    Total BS with zero science backing anything.  

     

     

     

     

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    11 hours ago, stoney said:

     

     

     

     

    We are all big boys and girls and need to make your own bed, sleep in it, and than accept the consequences......while respecting the situation, for those that cannot, that is truly what the enforcement should be used for.

    Not about being privileged, it is about principle....just depends where your principles are now a days based on what you see going on around you.

    The entire premise on the "Red" trails between health units was simply a political one that the OFSC had to do given the situation.....it is not about a private land that is closed for use due to reason x, y, z....., which would put this in a completely different light.

    Those looking for others to help make up your mind, really need to figure out for themselves what is important for them & their family, and what risk they are willing to take.

    As far as I am concerned, the reason we are in such a mess is too much listening to the government & allowing the government to do what they have done given that they have handled this entire situation so poorly.....prime example is the Dr that has closed the PS/NB region with little to no valid reason or proof and then to see the province actually put this same region in the same category as Toronto, Peel and York region....talk about nuts :crazy_grn:

     

     

    Also does not seem to matter what lockdown/restrictions are in place, the stats looks the same.

    Time to wake up for those still sleeping.

     

     

     

     

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Blackstar said:

     

    I don't see where anyone clarified this so I looked it up. She was in Texas flying back on American Air. She went to a doctors office to get a Covid test for her return f;ight. They asked which test she wanted and she said she didn't know. "Just the one so I can get on the plane." So they gave her a antigen test that is approved in America. Canda demands a molecular test. Thus they let her on the plane but not into Canada when she landed.

     

    She was tested at the Airport then held for 2 nights in the Westin Hotel until  they received the results and an exam was conducted by a Public Health nurse.

     

     

    The protocol implemented was despicable regardless of any circumstances.  You do realize that there are many essential workers crossing the borders everyday total exempt from any of these draconian measures and I'm one of them.  Why should I care when guys like me and my crew can pass at will.  Cause it's wrong on so many fronts.

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    1 hour ago, zoso said:

    Do you not think a story about the fact they hid the virus from us, denied military testing to confirm what the soldiers had, and covered it up to protect China is a story worth knowing. It is another prime example as to the utter failure, the lies, and the corruption we see in this government on a daily basis. That being said, then to have the federal agents appear at your door for publishing a leaked document, when they knew perfectly well the reporter had broken no laws was done so as a friendly visit when it was clearly an intimidation tactic from the highest levels of government was sickening to see. These are not regular police, these are federal enforcement officers. The government can ruin a life in the blink of an eye, even if the accusations have no basis in fact. They could arrive at your door, take you into custody, hold you, charge you, have you secure counsel, then fight in court only to have the charges stayed after costing you everything you own. Ya, no reason to be concerned when officer friendly comes knocking and was sent by the Prime Minister. 

    Our federal government lied to us about the origins of covid, but unless it's broadcast on fake news cbc and the like, its a non-starter. 

     

    Unbelievable.

    • Like 2

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Nickyskidoo said:

    Sorry man but this crap was here last Christmas my family and I got sick like we never have and got tested for strep +++ and nothing they knew of. Doctor and Pharmacist couldn't believe how many people were coming in with nothing they could pinpoint.

    Thats the big picture just sayin 

     

    For sure it was.  Pretty sure wife and I had it over a year ago.  

     

     

    image.thumb.png.3d584bcdbf43428a95cf007a0780f8cb.png

    • Like 1

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, stoney said:

    I did not see/read this post.....I too find it very odd that the world has labs that people manage to work in every day with I assume low or non existent death rates, that could be used in this scenario to protect the high risk.

    I mentioned this before about that retired general that wrote in an article recently talking about the training the army practiced do just that in this scenario, isolating those at risk & the support personal to look after them, and he questioned why those same practices are not being used now.

     

    On the bold, this seems to make more and more sense given what is happening right in front of us.....I recall a guy months ago was talking to me about this, thought he was a bit crazy & reading into things a little too much, but perhaps not....

    I'm sure the end result of the great reset will be for the gain of the middle class.

    • Haha 1

    North Bay Parry Sound Health Unit ordering area OFSC trails closed

    in Main Clubhouse

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, stoney said:

    Knowing we apparently have an "issue" with the people within our Ontario circle that live here now, work here (well not all in light of what is going on) and the vast majority (I think) that would like to see things get to normal, but yet the driving factor for the restrictions in place are the infected numbers and the hospital numbers that are under the microscope, why would allowing "new" people to come here be okay.....regardless of their impact today, the bottom line, it is another infected person that is fueling the asinine decisions being made, so put a stop to it or put a stop to the whole thing and lets get on with life.

    Personally, like to put a stop to all of it & get on with things, but I know that is a huge hurtle to overcome right now.

    Obviously you cannot stop goods, but people that have not reason to be coming here now, should be stopped or placed in a mandatory secure camp for the quarantined time line, no questions asked or option to opt out.....but that is another cost that we can do without.....

    The people traveling today are not the main cause.  

     

    Shut it down, it only delays the inevitable, fix it and it stops.

     

    • Like 1
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