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About SkiDooStu

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  1. SkiDooStu

    Weather Statistics for January since 1901

    I will be posting two more that I am working on. One of the graphs shows the number of days in January, per each decade, where the high temperature went above zero. The other will show the number of days in January, per each decade, where the high temperature went above 10 degrees celcius. A preview: With the exception of a couple of decades, 1960 and 1970's to be exact, the period from 2001 to 2013 is NOT any warmer overall, at least in London, Ontario.
  2. Well, I was bored yesterday, so I had a look at the mean (average) January temperature, by year, and by decade since 1901 right up until this year. This is not meant as a commentary on Global Warming, but rather a commentary on the highly variable winters in London, Ontario. The yellow line represents 2001-2010. There is another incomplete yellow line from 2011 to 2013. There is a blue line that represents 1971 to 1980, which is likely the decade that most people of the baby boomer generation nostalgize with regard to big snows and cold temperatures. The red line is 1931 to 1940, a rather warm decade. The black lines are every decade not included above. Any thoughts? I don't really see the "warmer shorter winters" argument when you examine the last hundred or so years as a whole, but I definitely do see this argument when you compare it to the 1960's and 1970's. Edit: The "1st 2nd 3rd" etc on the x-axis are the years in the decade - ie. 1931 is 1st, 1932 is 2nd, etc.
  3. SkiDooStu

    North Bay SC Trail Status Updates

    Uyi have a chance to go up to Temagami in a week. Any idea if there is snow up there yet? Thanks for any help!
  4. SkiDooStu


    Lake Effect snow has already started in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan. There will be moderate snow from a weak storm tonight that might start as rain in cottage country. I suspect that lake effect snow will follow as the 850mb temperature will be close to -20C. Looks like a good wind direction too. Here's hoping! Lake effect snow isn't exactly easy to predict. Do you remember 2007 when a permanent squall set up over Highway 21 for a few weeks? The snow in Walkerton was drifting all the way up the hydro poles...
  5. SkiDooStu

    Let me make this perfectly clear

    Damn right. We need to save what we have! Hopefully it freezes into a great base this coming week!
  6. SkiDooStu


    Try this neat Environment Canada tool: http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/canada_e.html I think the best two decades to be a sledder were the 60's and 70's, according to this data. 1900-1940 had terribly unreliable winters for SW Ontario!
  7. SkiDooStu


    Ummm 3 years ago I had the best winter for snowmobiling that I have ever seen. I started riding in early December and didn't stop until march. Considering that winters early in the 20th century were MUCH worse for snowmobiling than now, I would say "NO."
  8. SkiDooStu

    Weather update

    Yup, I agree. But, the euro model is typically the more accurate of the two... It's funny, I talked to a guy at work who told me he sold his two sleds last year. He says it was a liberating experience. He is no longer glued to the weather websites, and constantly re planning vacations due to the weather. I don't think I'll ever quit, but I can understand what he means!
  9. SkiDooStu

    Weather update

    Just checked the euro model at 168 hrs. 850mb temperatures are at -12. That's Wednesday...You need at least a 13C differential in lake surface tempreature and 850mb temperature for "significant" lake effect snow. Right now, Lake Huron temperatures are nearly 7C! What is better is that the same model has their 850mb winds pushing right towards cottage country starting at this 168 hour range. Then, they will shift to coming from a NW direction. Pretty hard to forecast wind direction a week out, but with frigid 850mb temperatures incoming (-25C) at 216 hours for cottage country, things are looking up again. Brett Anderson also reported today that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), that is known for "blocking" cold air in the eastern part of the continent looks to be staying negative (good) for the rest of the winter. In others news, I looked up several other depressing winters from the early 1900's and found several that were far worse... Life aint' all that bad!
  10. SkiDooStu

    THE "R" WORD

    For those of you depressed today, have a look at this website. This fella has been forecasting the cold outbreak around mid January for a couple weeks now... Theweathercentre.blogspot.ca Keep in mind, we have had a real absence of arctic air in the SW this year. True arctic air, in the neighbourhood of twenty below WILL drop a ton of snow. It all depends on which way the wind blows!
  11. SkiDooStu

    THE "R" WORD

    Not looking good at this point. Seems like a pretty intense rain storm is on tap..hopefully the cold that follows will kick up some decent lake effect snow. The lakes are all very open still!
  12. SkiDooStu

    Weather update

    So, pretty much all of the meteos I follow, even the warmth lovers at accuweather, seem to be on board with this polar vortex collapse starting in the mid continent on the 13th, and further east a few days later... The forecasted warmth for cottage country seems to have moderated a bit so hopefully we won't lose as much snow. Avoiding a torrential downpour would be key to that... Remember the January of 2007? Mild until mid January. Then there was a polar outbreak, similar to the one that is forecasted. That brought feet of lake effect snow to the snowbelts.
  13. SkiDooStu

    Dry winter???

    The blocking refers to high pressure setting up in northern lattitudes that will block arctic air from coming south. So, ideally, we want it in the area of greenland, so there is a funneling effect that brings the arctic air this way! Last year, there was no blocking, so the jet stream remained far in the north, with no arctic intrusions. Europe on the other hand endured brutal cold. Same with Alaska!
  14. SkiDooStu

    Weather update

    And, overall, the weather pattern looks a lot stormier!
  15. SkiDooStu

    We are Packing

    I've been looking at the radar a lot lately. Seems like quite a bit of snow has been falling in district 10 over the next few days. Good luck Bill. I wish I could help this year, but I can't come up until the 20th.