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its a shame :(


cookster

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well with the weather being good and cold here for the last few days here in paisley, ground  set up nice and hard frozen,  followed by bit of blowing snow filling in ditches and drifting a bit ,  woke up this morning to a good 5 to 6 inches of new snow "wet snow but still snow"      darn shame it calling for rain today, and then snow for next week or more, would have been a great start for the snow thats on ground now.    o-well thats life.

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Wait and see. Woke up to less then half of what they forecast, but now their saying mostly snow today with a chance of rain.

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We got 3-4" in Oshawa. Just got done shovelling in the rain.

 

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Snowing hard here in south eastern ontario with some rain strting after 5 pm. Way more than forecast has fallen, at least ten cm so far, it is wet snow. The 30 cm we got earlier was very dry. The 3 mm of rain will be absorbed by the dry snow with minimal melt as it is after dark. Then another 20 cmforecast over the following week. Looks like it will be great and trails should be just fine.

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Definitely got more than what they were calling for! Twn is horrible this year! I thought they were bad last year, seems like every time they forecast something it’s the complete opposite this season. 

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1 hour ago, Baylaker said:

Definitely got more than what they were calling for! Twn is horrible this year! I thought they were bad last year, seems like every time they forecast something it’s the complete opposite this season. 

Maybe they're using a new dart board for the forecasting (I mean guessing)?

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2 minutes ago, catinental couch said:

..... and none of them can play darts. :rolleyes:

Send them to the Tartan...

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Over the past few years I've become a fanatic at watching the weather forecast and I think I've determined a pattern.  I firmly believe that the weather forecasters are catering to the non-winter people (the "NWP"). When I check the 1 week or even 2 week forecast and notice they are forecasting snow, in say 90% of the time the amount they are forecasting gradually comes down as we get closer to the day (today being an exception, although they had downplayed the weekend snow until Friday).  This way, the "NWP" are happy to get less snow.  I've also noticed the same with these *blips* in temperatures.  They start to forecast a short term rise in temps, and as the day gets closer, the temp gets higher and higher.  As a case in point, on the 17th, they were forecasting a high of -5 for today.  By the 20th they were forecasting a high of +1.  Again, the "NWP" are happy to have it warmer than originally predicted. 

 

However, if they under-forecast the snow,  and if they over-forecast the temperature *blips*, the "NWP" are unhappy.

 

I have no way of verifying this, but it's been my observation in about 90% of the cases. 

 

And now that I've put this out there, everyone reading this is going to start monitoring to see if the pattern fits!  :rotflmao:  Hint:  It's easiest if you take screenshots of the 14 day graph on a daily basis!  :-)

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12 minutes ago, paulslund said:

Over the past few years I've become a fanatic at watching the weather forecast and I think I've determined a pattern.  I firmly believe that the weather forecasters are catering to the non-winter people (the "NWP"). When I check the 1 week or even 2 week forecast and notice they are forecasting snow, in say 90% of the time the amount they are forecasting gradually comes down as we get closer to the day (today being an exception, although they had downplayed the weekend snow until Friday).  This way, the "NWP" are happy to get less snow.  I've also noticed the same with these *blips* in temperatures.  They start to forecast a short term rise in temps, and as the day gets closer, the temp gets higher and higher.  As a case in point, on the 17th, they were forecasting a high of -5 for today.  By the 20th they were forecasting a high of +1.  Again, the "NWP" are happy to have it warmer than originally predicted. 

 

However, if they under-forecast the snow,  and if they over-forecast the temperature *blips*, the "NWP" are unhappy.

 

I have no way of verifying this, but it's been my observation in about 90% of the cases. 

 

And now that I've put this out there, everyone reading this is going to start monitoring to see if the pattern fits!  :rotflmao:  Hint:  It's easiest if you take screenshots of the 14 day graph on a daily basis!  :-)

 

I wouldn't be a bit surprised. I remember when Bill Coulter was on Global, his reports & forecast seemed rather 'level-headed'. Now that he's on CP24, he seems to pander to the urbanites that live south of Steeles Ave...

 

I'm pretty sure the majority of the weather & news 'readers' detest winter (just listen to the chatter). A couple of years ago there was a documentary about how Canadians have taken avoiding winter to a science.

 

The reaction in the GTA to last weekend's cold snap is the same as every cold spell every winter, "It's awful!" You would almost think this was Atlanta or Houston where COLD temps aren't the norm.

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1 hour ago, revrnd said:

 

I wouldn't be a bit surprised. I remember when Bill Coulter was on Global, his reports & forecast seemed rather 'level-headed'. Now that he's on CP24, he seems to pander to the urbanites that live south of Steeles Ave...

 

I'm pretty sure the majority of the weather & news 'readers' detest winter (just listen to the chatter). A couple of years ago there was a documentary about how Canadians have taken avoiding winter to a science.

 

The reaction in the GTA to last weekend's cold snap is the same as every cold spell every winter, "It's awful!" You would almost think this was Atlanta or Houston where COLD temps aren't the norm.

What kind of idiot would remain living in canada if they hated winter? Seriously if I hated winter I would live no further north than the carolinas..

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Paulslund's theory may be right, but I'd also suggest that beyond a very few days, the forecasts are heavily reliant on seasonal averages.

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Monday was 5, then upgraded to 15-20. Then downgraded to 10, and now back up to 15-20 all within 2 days.

 

tuesday was 5, and now is 10. All within 1 day.

 

i really don’t feel like pushing all that snow, but I’d sure love to be sledding in it from home. 

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1 hour ago, Baylaker said:

Monday was 5, then upgraded to 15-20. Then downgraded to 10, and now back up to 15-20 all within 2 days.

 

tuesday was 5, and now is 10. All within 1 day.

 

i really don’t feel like pushing all that snow, but I’d sure love to be sledding in it from home. 

I've seen that happen too in my area.. usually happens when you're right on the cuff of a weather event and it can either miss you, hit you full force or just catch it as it goes by..

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1 hour ago, paulslund said:

I've seen that happen too in my area.. usually happens when you're right on the cuff of a weather event and it can either miss you, hit you full force or just catch it as it goes by..

I have seen storms come in off of Georgian Bay. Sometimes they will split as they hit Beausoleil Island / Honey Harbour. Part goes north and dumps on MacTier and part goes south and dumps on Orillia area leaving Port Severn with little impact. Other times it's much larger and dumps all of southern Georgian Bay. The streamers can make a big difference. They are often narrow and focussed.

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2 hours ago, 02Sled said:

I have seen storms come in off of Georgian Bay. Sometimes they will split as they hit Beausoleil Island / Honey Harbour. Part goes north and dumps on MacTier and part goes south and dumps on Orillia area leaving Port Severn with little impact. Other times it's much larger and dumps all of southern Georgian Bay. The streamers can make a big difference. They are often narrow and focussed.

I found over the years that if the ice is frozen out as far as the Giants tomb, thats when HH and PS would get the squalls. Until then the area would be under a bubble..

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That some people want to ride on the mush we had today. I couldnt believe the number rigs I met today on 28 between Apsley & Ptbo. Why not wait until tomorrow after the trails tighten up?

 

Talking to another sledder today. He was home since his riding group was delaying their ride until tomorrow for that very reason.

 

Lots of slush under the snow in the backyard right now.

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Our club and neighbouring club have been working hard to pack a base. I got to watch a bunch of squids using the unopened trails next to my office all day. High school kids with pipes and blipping the crap out of the fun flipper. 

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9 minutes ago, revrnd said:

That some people want to ride on the mush we had today. I couldnt believe the number rigs I met today on 28 between Apsley & Ptbo. Why not wait until tomorrow after the trails tighten up?

 

Talking to another sledder today. He was home since his riding group was delaying their ride until tomorrow for that very reason.

 

Lots of slush under the snow in the backyard right now.

Are the trails marked closed?

 

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11 minutes ago, PISTON LAKE CRUISER said:

Are the trails marked closed?

 

No but I guess in my age I go for quality rather than quantity...

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Closed in my area. I have seen 30 sleds in the last 48 hours. 

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