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Winterforcast


dweese

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Saw the first winterforcast today well cruising Facebook...

 

They say better then average snow for Ontario and Quebec this year.

 

 

https://www.northernontario.travel/snowmobiling/winter-weather-forecast-2017-2018

 

Alot of it is just an ad for Nothern Ontario travel. So maybe they are just trying to bait the early bookers now sure... Either way only 11 weeks until Christmas.

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keeping the fingers crossed that the forecast is correct. After all I have $395.00 invested in the coming season already.

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I saw a report prepared for Propane producers so they can predict volumes needed. It said the same thing.

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Based on the extra high size of the salt pile at the highway maintenance yard, I would say we are in for a snowy winter .......because the MTO contractors and government never get things wrong !! .....................   ;)

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historically, after a HUGE el nino (2016), and a large la nina (2017), the winters get progressively harsher little by little but, not extremely harsh. happened in 1997-1998 and 1998-99... 99-00 was ok but, not HUGE. my guess it will be better than the last two, by how much, who knows. we will get to ride. Ski

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Dont care,,,,,have put the signage up for 2yrs not one day open trails......Dont care,,,,,,its all fun getting out about meeting our landowners the peeps in the the club etc....

 

Dont care.....if mother nature blesses us or not........Truck,trailer,sleds are ready for the track Up Nord,

 

 

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My take on central Ontario winter season is that cold and warm seasons comes in twos and threes.  Rarely do you see 4 bad/good years in a row.  As well, I find the El Niño/la Nina events have a huge impact here. Last year was a weak La Niña, that turned neutral - usually a strong La Niña is needed for cold temps and good snow conditions. El Niño and neutral temps are not good for sledding in central/south Ontario imo. 

 

The threshold is .5 degrees cel

 
 

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1950 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8
1951 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8
1952 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
1953 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7
1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5
1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
1957 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7
1958 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
1959 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1960 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
1962 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
1963 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3
1964 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
1965 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7
1966 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
1967 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4
1968 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0
1969 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1970 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1
1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9
1972 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1
1973 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0
1974 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6
1975 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7
1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8
1977 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
1978 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
1979 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1980 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
1981 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
1982 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2
1983 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9
1984 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1
1985 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
1986 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2
1987 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.8
1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5
1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1
1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1
2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court 
College Park, Maryland 20740 
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: November 4, 2015
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A La Nina seems to be a guarantee. How that impacts the great lakes region depends on what happens off the coast of Alaska.

The computer model runs are going topsy turvy it seems. I think there is a new EWMCF run that some are interpreting as lots of cold out west and mostly warm temps, but "active Great Lakes". 

Other numbers are showing cold December/January but February and March melt down similar to last year. 

As long as we stay away from that Pacific Jet we should be in for "a normal" winter. 

LaNinapattern.png

 

 

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North of Sault Ste. Marie

 

Lake Superior Surface temperatures are +6 F above the normal (October 10th) for this time of year.  This will equate to good December snow north between the Sault and Wawa, until the lake freezes up.  Last year, temperatures were +7 F above normal and the region got pounded for the entire month of December.  I snowblew the driveway literally every day.

 

A photo below taken on December 11th in the mountains north of the Sault.

 

Dan-Senior

Mountains North of Sault Ste. Marie - Dec 11 2016.jpg

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Just saw this on Twitter

 

YYZ Weather Records Retweeted Doug Gillham

Winter 2007/8 was the snowiest winter in over 50 years with 194cm of total snow.

YYZ Weather Records added,

Doug Gillham @gtaweather1
Streak of 20ºC days ends at 9 days tied w/ 2007; Several interesting parallels between this fall so far & 2007; Potential clues for winter?? https://twitter.com/YYZ_Weather/status/917813431570518016 
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On 10/12/2017 at 12:10 PM, Dave K said:

Just saw this on Twitter

 

YYZ Weather Records Retweeted Doug Gillham

Winter 2007/8 was the snowiest winter in over 50 years with 194cm of total snow.

YYZ Weather Records added,

Doug Gillham @gtaweather1
Streak of 20ºC days ends at 9 days tied w/ 2007; Several interesting parallels between this fall so far & 2007; Potential clues for winter?? https://twitter.com/YYZ_Weather/status/917813431570518016 
0 replies6 retweets6 likes
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Yes! Getting excited.:D

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Well it's snowing in Everett ON. It's a coming folks!!

 

VID_20171016_095330.mp4

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That video made my day!! Thanks for sharing!

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Glad it brought joy to someone else crazy for snow!!

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7 hours ago, Team2UP said:

Well it's snowing in Everett ON. It's a coming folks!!

 

VID_20171016_095330.mp4

I hope not. We need some frost first and cooler nights to dry out the corn. Most of our's and neighbours corns fields are still 25% green. Normally corn harvest would start early October and finish by early nov. We expect to start 2 to 3 weeks from now and run into end of November for sure. I still see soybeans out in the fields for guys that have more acres.

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  • 2 weeks later...

No snow, but we did get some frost, south of seven, this morning!

20171026_084108.jpg

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There was frost on the car this morning in Barrie. I'd imagine every where north of here as well.

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Roof and cars covered with frost just outside Waterloo this morning. Heaviest frost to date this year.

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It doesn't take much to get us excited.... a little bit of frost and it's wahoo!!! Non snowmobilers likely think we're crazy. They don't know what they're missing.

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21 hours ago, PISTON LAKE CRUISER said:

Roof and cars covered with frost just outside Waterloo this morning. Heaviest frost to date this year.

Frost in fergus yesterday as well. Grass drags in belwood tomorrow for anybody that's interested.

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13 hours ago, Baylaker said:

Frost in fergus yesterday as well. Grass drags in belwood tomorrow for anybody that's interested.

What’s the time and place? I work until noon buts it’s only 40 min drive for me. 

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